Notes from the Polling Trenches
I have been noticing that while some polling organizations consistently show Ralph Nader pulling around 5 percent nationally, other polling organizations have him consistently at 1 or 2 percent. Any professional pollster will admit in private that the way a question is worded has immense influence on the result.
See the below two questions contained in two separate recent polls, and guess which one Ralph Nader scored 5 percent on, and which one he scored 1 percent on?
A. If the presidential election were being held today, for whom would you vote -- the Republican Party ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Democratic Party ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, or a candidate from another party? Would you describe yourself as very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic or not enthusiastic about the candidacy of (Barack Obama) (John McCain)?
IF OTHER CANDIDATE: Which of four other presidential candidates on the California ballot would you vote for – Bob Barr, Libertarian party; Ralph Nader, Peace and Freedom Party; Alan Keyes, American Independent Party; or Cynthia McKinney, Green Party?
B. If the next election for president were held today, with John McCain as the Republican candidate, Barack Obama as the Democratic candidate, Bob Barr as the Libertarian candidate, and Ralph Nader as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?
Not surprisingly, the first question had a much lower result for Ralph Nader (1 per cent) than did the second question (5 percent), as the first question didn’t even mention his name which is a big problem as many people do not even know he is running. Ralph told me the other day how many people he meets in his travels through the 50 states that say: “I didn’t even know you were running. Now that I know, I am definitely going to vote for you.”
Poll B was a national poll conducted by the Wall Street Journal. Poll A was a California poll, conducted by the Field Poll, California’s standard-bearer when it comes to polls. In previous elections, even when Ralph was not on the California ballot, they have included his name as part of the standard questions. Even though he is on the ballot in California, unlike in 2004, they are not including his name in the primary question this time.
In most polls, Ralph’s California results generally closely track his national standing. This makes sense given that 15 percent of his 2000 vote came from California and that California is a slam-dunk safe state where Obama is assured of winning.
I asked the Director of the Field Poll this morning, Mark DiCamillo, if it might be possible to include the other third party Presidential Candidates’ names as part of the primary question. He said no, because they had made the decision to include the names of the Presidential and VP candidates on the primary question, so my suggestion would be unwieldy. He explained that he didn’t want to remove the VP candidates’ names, because the VPs were playing such a central role this campaign and the VP Debate would likely attract more viewers than the Presidential Debate.
"Fair enough," I said. "How about conducting at least one poll with all the candidates fairly named in the primary question like the Wall Street Journal poll does?" Mark said, "No, we’re not going to do that."
Trying to work with him and his desire to include the VPs in his primary question, I asked if he might consider a poll question where they would rotate one-at-time each third party ticket’s names into the primary question. That would not be too unwieldy, and while it would be less statistically significant for the third party result, at least we would have a better sense of where the third party candidates stand in voters’ minds. Mark was not open to this suggestion either.
I challenged him: "In your opinion as a professional pollster, do you honestly think that they way you are presently asking the question is fair to third party candidates?"
Mark was agitated and defensive, but he said yes, he thought it was fair.
"Ok then", I said, trying to salvage something from the call. "On another topic, would you be willing to insert a question into your next open poll to ask Californians: Would you like to see third party candidates in the Presidential Debates?"
He said his guide to polling is what is on people’s minds, what’s being talked about.
So let’s flood Mark with some e-mails and phone calls to let him know it’s on our mind, just like it is in the pages of USA Today editorials and US News and World Report this week:
- http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2008/09/opposing-view-1.html
- http://www.usnews.com/articles/opinion/2008/09/22/nader-open-the-debates-for-third-party-candidates-like-bob-barr-cynthia-mckinney-and-me.html
When will he ask Californians if they would like to see third party candidates in the presidential debates?
Mark DiCamillo, Director of the Field Poll
markd@fieldpoll.com
(415) 392-5763
See links to the two polls mentioned:
http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2286.pdf
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_NBCPoll_092408.pdf
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Note: By submitting your comments you acknowledge that Nader for President 2008 has the right to reproduce, broadcast and publicize those comments or any part thereof in any manner whatsoever. Please note that due to the volume of comments we receive, not all comments will be published and it may take several hours for your comments to be reviewed, and those that are published will not be edited. But all will be carefully read, considered and appreciated.
Your comment will be visible to you (and only you) after you post it, at which point it is queued for consideration and no longer visible. Please refrain from submitting your comments multiple times.
